Real Story: Friendly Trend
04/30/07 - 05:50 PM EDT
TSC Staff
"A positive interpretation of Monday's data is that -- along with Friday's soft first-quarter GDP report -- it confirms the Federal Reserve's preferred scenario of a slowing economy helping to bring down inflationary pressures," Aaron Task says on Monday's Real Story podcast. "That's good news for both the Fed's credibility and -- if you're bullish -- financial assets."
With earnings season winding down, the economic news did take center stage Monday. The reaction of financial markets reflected the data's seemingly mixed message, with Treasuries rallying while stocks retreated. The Treasury market certainly took a bullish view of the data, which included weaker-than-expected reports on personal consumption, Chicago PMI and construction spending, the benchmark 10-year note rose 19/32, its yield falling to 4.63%. Such a relatively low Treasury yield is bullish for stocks, says Task, as it provides little competition for yield-seeking investors. It's also bullish for housing, because mortgage rates are pinned to the 10-year's yield. Nonetheless, major averages retreated Monday, with the Dow falling 58.03 points, or 0.44%, to 13,062.91. The S&P 500 lost 11.70 points, or 0.78%, to 1482.37. The Nasdaq was hit the hardest, slumping 32.12 points, or 1.26%, to 2525.09.
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